🔗 Share this article

As dawn illuminated the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, representatives remained confined in a windowless conference room, unaware whether it was day or night. For more than 12 hours in tense discussions, with scores ministers representing various coalitions of countries ranging from the poorest nations to the most developed economies.

Frustration mounted, the air thick as exhausted delegates acknowledged the sobering reality: they would not reach a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The 30th UN climate conference teetered on the brink of abject failure.

The central impasse: Fossil fuels

As science has told us for well over a century, the greenhouse gases produced by burning fossil fuels is warming our planet to dangerous levels.

Yet, during over three decades of yearly climate meetings, the essential necessity to halt fossil fuel use has been referenced only once – in a resolution made two years ago at Cop28 to "move beyond fossil fuels". Delegates from the Arab Group, Russia, and a few other countries were adamant this would not occur another time.

Mounting support for change

Simultaneously, a increasing coalition of countries were equally determined that advancement on this issue was urgently necessary. They had created a proposal that was attracting increasing support and made it evident they were prepared to dig in.

Emerging economies urgently needed to move forward on securing financial assistance to help them address the increasingly severe impacts of climate disasters.

Breaking point

In the pre-dawn period of Saturday, some delegates were willing to leave and force a collapse. "The situation was precarious for us," commented one government representative. "I was prepared to walk away."

The critical development came through discussions with Saudi Arabia. Shortly after 6am, principal delegates separated from the main group to hold a confidential discussion with the chief Saudi negotiator. They urged wording that would indirectly acknowledge the global commitment to "shift from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unanticipated resolution

As opposed to explicitly namechecking fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the previous commitment". Following reflection, the Saudi delegation surprisingly approved the wording.

The room collapsed into relief. Cheers erupted. The deal was finalized.

With what became known as the "Brazil agreement", the world took a modest advance towards the gradual elimination of fossil fuels – a faltering, limited step that will minimally impact the climate's ongoing trajectory towards disaster. But nevertheless a important shift from total inaction.

Major components of the agreement

• Alongside the subtle acknowledgment in the official document, countries will start developing a plan to phase out fossil fuels
• This will be largely a voluntary initiative led by Brazil that will report back next year
• Addressing the essential decreases in greenhouse gas emissions to remain below the 1.5C limit was also put off to next year
• Developing countries secured a tripling to $120bn of annual finance to help them cope with the impacts of extreme weather
• This sum will not be delivered in full until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "equitable change process" to help people working in fossil fuel sectors move toward the sustainable sector

Varied responses

While our planet hovers near the brink of climate "tipping points" that could eliminate habitats and plunge whole regions into chaos, the agreement was insufficient as the "major breakthrough" needed.

"Cop30 gave us some modest progress in the correct path, but in light of the magnitude of the climate crisis, it has failed to rise to the occasion," stated one climate expert.

This imperfect deal might have been the maximum achievable, given the geopolitical headwinds – including a Washington administration who avoided the talks and remains aligned with oil and coal, the growing influence of nationalist politics, continuing wars in various areas, unacceptable degrees of inequality, and global economic uncertainty.

"The climate arsonists – the fossil fuel giants – were finally in the spotlight at the climate summit," says one environmental advocate. "There is no turning back on that. The opportunity is available. Now we must transform it into a genuine solution to a safer world."

Significant divisions revealed

Even as nations were able to celebrate the gavelling through of the deal, Cop30 also exposed major disagreements in the only global process for addressing the climate crisis.

"International summits are consensus-based, and in a era of global disagreements, consensus is increasingly difficult to reach," observed one international diplomat. "It would be dishonest to claim that these talks has provided all that is needed. The gap between where we are and what science demands remains concerningly substantial."

If the world is to prevent the most severe impacts of climate breakdown, the international negotiations alone will not be nearly enough.